World Crisis Update
A situation report on the reality, fantasy and consequences of Israel's war on Iran
The consequences of Israel’s war on Iran are becoming visible in reality, and have even begun to appear in the Western media.
This post is about what is happening now, what is likely to happen next, and what this means for you.
Contents
Why the war is happening, what is happening, what this means
The Many Awful Truths about this war
…and many of the lies too
Nuclear threat
What you can do
Where you can find out more
Why is this happening?
Israel has wanted a war on Iran for decades and now it got one1. How?
The Israel “lobby” directs US politicians and policy.
What is happening?
As I said from January onwards, the case for war was fabricated.
It is now clear the war is a disaster. I said so on March 4th here, and here again the day after.
What does this mean?
The resistance to the recognition of reality in the West is making the now inevitable crisis worse and wastes vital time and resources.
What is this crisis?
In the US, the psychological impact of America’s defeat, the depth of the corruption in its leadership, the awful revelation of all the lies told by the leadership class and its court press, and the likely collapse or severe devaluation of the currency. .
In the UK, the same plus a severe shortage of fuel, food, medicine, fertiliser and precursor chemicals. In Europe, the same but marginally less severe as UK lies at the end of a supply chain running dry.
Australia is already running out of fuel. New Zealand will run out of fuel.
The war will not stop until the Israelis will stop, and no one seems to be willing at present to attempt to restrain them.
Why is there so little recognition in the media if things are so bad?
Elite class media has indeed reported on these issues this week, as I predicted they would begin to do, and then I said they would stop.
The reason for this is twofold. Telling people the truth will cause panic and despair. The second is the realisation of the likely fatal damage to the global system this war threatens to complete. The third is it is the complete lack of restraint on Israeli action which has brought Israel and the world to the brink of disaster. This reality would collapse the American worldview completely.
This reality is coming, sooner or later. The question is only whether it will be delivered to the American people before or after the point of no return.
The Awful Truth
Here are my lists Awful Truths. These will be widely known within weeks despite (and eventually because of) the denial of reality by the leadership class and its media.
EFFORTS IN THE CAUSE OF SANITY ARE UNDERWAY.
Pray for success.
The Trump Administration is Lying to You
There was no reason for the war (no nuclear threat)
Every aspect of this crisis was predictable and predicted
US Government was warned by its own intelligence that this disaster would ensue
USG has isolated itself from sane advice
Donald Trump, the US government and its sympathetic media are simply making things up to pacify the markets and the population
Insider trading timed to Trump talking down the war suggests these people are cashing out now
The global economy is facing collapse, with famine and riots a serious possibility in many countries including those in the wider West.
The “Peace talks” were MOSTLY fictional
Israel has assassinated Iranian negotiators for over a year.
Israel launched a war during the latest round of negotiations because the negotiations were successful in removing the case for war
Iran has said there will be no more negotiations
US “negotiators” Witkoff and Kushner are regarded as Israeli assets
Witkoff invented the claim about Iran boasting of having material for 11 nuclear bombs to enrage Trump
No one else in the talks heard the Iranians say this
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry has denied any mediation taking place despite repeated assurances from Trump that “talks are going well”.
The Iranians are not talking to the Americans directly or indirectly.
Russians are talking to the Americans, absent the Israelis and the Iranians.
Some deal may be possible to de-escalate Ukraine and Iran in tandem but it remains unclear and in my view unlikely
Reuters has reported the Israelis intended to kill the Iranian Foreign Minister and the Parliamentary Speaker
This is obviously aimed at killing anyone who could arrange peace
This is the Israeli strategy as it has obviously been so far
Given the foregoing, and the fact the Iranians are winning, do you believe the German Foreign Minister when he says he “believes” talks will now proceed?
Statements such as this have routinely appeared on Fridays and Mondays to calm markets, whilst Israeli strikes on infrastructure and assassinations have followed in the past weeks according to this pattern.
Netanyahu does not want peace
Pakistan reported the Iranians believed the invitation to talk was a ruse to lure their foreign minister and others into an assassination trap
Reports have emerged this was the Israelis’ plan
Israel is under severe domestic stress from bombing, army morale collapse, severe losses in Lebanon, and the escalating violence in the West Bank
Israel cannot cover the enormous financial costs of the war either
Why does Israel not want peace? It seems much of Israel does but the leadership does not. Why?
Netanyahu will go to prison when peace breaks out. His strategy is and always has been (since the 1970s) to ride the waves of forever war. He has devoted his career to starting these wars and he began in 1979 to persuade the US and UK to adopt the “war on terror” as their grand strategy.
The regime that has changed most is ours. This is the final regime change war. It is the end of the regime change regime itself, and the end of the world as we knew it.
Whatever is done next beside peace will only make the damage worse and the world crisis more severe. Why?
What comes next for Israel?
Netanyahu said his vision for “the day after” the war was the rerouting of oil and gas in the Middle East through Israel
(You can watch Netanyahu say this here - Richard Engel’s interview March 25th)
To realise this dream it would be expedient to show the existing routes no longer function
To the reported “outrage” of the Trump admin, which did nothing to restrain Israel, the Israelis began a round of strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure
Israel bombed the desalination plant on Qeshm, an oil refinery in Tehran then the Pars gas field and plant.
This led to retaliatory strikes by Iran on oil and gas. Israel has been suspected of attacking Saudi and Gulf oil installations as Iran has denied these attacks - earlier in the cycle.
It appears Israel has done its utmost to accelerate this round of destruction, which has no relation to US war goals
The Israelis have repeatedly tried to hit the only operational nuclear power station in Iran at Bushehr, which is still operated by Russian technicians and is inspected by the IAEA.
It is the Netanyahu government which is pushing Trump to initiate more strikes on the Iranian energy grid. This is the real objective, not “boots on the ground”.
Tit for tat? Iran hit Dimona nuclear technicians’ homes 12 miles west of the nuclear installation itself. Israel has attempted direct hits on the Bushehr reactor in iran. Donald Trump has warned he will destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure in the next round of strikes, and has said he will begin with the biggest power station
The biggest power station is the Bushehr nuclear reactor.
The US has lost and the US is lost.
The US has lost this war and as I said four weeks ago has suffered a strategic defeat. This means it has lost its influence in the Middle East, its military bases, control of the oil market which underwrote its currency, and its aura of prestige and power has evaporated.
The US diplomatic position in the region seems to be irretrievable
The US diplomatic reputation worldwide is severely damaged
The US Empire is over. This is not a win for America.
This changes the entire global system.
Many Americans will be devastated when this is realised.
Furkan Gözükara@FurkanGozukaraFormer NATO Commander drops a brutal reality check. He says Trump is completely trapped. He either has to launch an inconceivable massive land invasion of Iran, or declare a fake victory and walk away utterly humiliated. There is no winning this war.12:25 AM · Mar 23, 2026 · 898K Views855 Replies · 6.42K Reposts · 23.4K Likes
What would winning look like?
The US Navy cannot approach the straits as it would be sunk.
The US military has evacuated almost all personnel from all regional bases, and is withdrawing from Iraq.
US/Israeli radar and air defence is severely degraded
Iranian air defence sub 15000 ft is operational and effective.
The US air force just bombed the formerly allied Iraqi army.
There is now a mobilisation of militia in Iraq together with a national army which has just been bombed by the USA, delivering potentially hundreds of thousands of more troops to fight the US and Israel.
The US has perhaps 10 000 light infantry concentrating to launch some assault, we are told, in the region.
Nothing these troops can do can affect the outcome of the war and it is extremely likely that they will all be killed.
No sane man would consider sending a token force to die on an island in the persian gulf.
Imagine the US/Israel plan “wins”. Iran’s power grid is destroyed, the state collapses, the region’s oil and gas all goes offline, no one can guarantee shipping safety in the resulting chaos, the straits close permanently and the market dies.
The reason the straits are “closed” is because Lloyds cannot insure ships because it is too risky. The reason the straits are “open” is because Iran can and does guarantee safe passage to ships (if they pay in non-dollar currency)
If you destroy Iran (Iran will not be destroyed) there would be chaos.
Does that sound like winning? Yes, if you are not a rational actor.
Yes, if you are cashing out anyway.
Fallacies and the illusion of reason
Men are not enlightened creatures of reason and they select their beliefs on their preferences and not according to their truth value.
The decisions of most men are directed in this way
Wise men in every written tradition in history seek liberation from enslavement to the passions for this reason.
Aside from this, tribes exist.
This means different “families” of peoples are present in the world
These tribes have different customs - called culture at scale
Tribes view the world differently
It is a virtue under our regime to ignore this reality
Good people cannot readily recognise evil. For example, on March 25th Trump boasted of extracting trillions of dollars from the Gulf States, for protection he has failed to provide.
Wilful ignorance of the differing attitudes and beliefs of peoples leads to catastrophic mistakes
Example 1: The Iranians are not Americans. They did not fall to their knees in awe at US air power. Instead, the bombings galvanised and united them in resolve to die in the defence of their homeland.
This lesson was taught but not learned in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Example 2: The Israelis are not Christians. They don’t value life like we do, they don’t recognise moral limits like we do, they don’t behave like we do in significant ways, their goals aren’t the same as ours.
Rational calculations of action and reaction are insufficient to explain strategic decision making and decisive consquences. The two most relevant here which exceed the limitations of the Western elite mentality are:
The Iranians are prepared to fight to the death
The Israelis are prepared to destroy everything
The American people are being “protected” from reality
Fantasy and reality about regime change
The war is lost because the Israelis persuaded Trump it could be won in days.
The idea was bombing Iran and killing its leader (and as it turns out a school full of children on day one) would make the Iranians love America and Israel and make them hate the “regime” and overthrow their own government whilst bombs were falling on their cities.
I said in January 2026 that the violent “protests” in Iran were instigated by foreign agencies. This week Mossad Chief David Barnea was arguing with the Americans and Netanyahu about this operation.
A different world view in the Hebrew press in Israel. Read Yossi Melman’s article here (machine translation here) Barnea (who had previously been living at the White House in the runup to the war) said he gave no guarantee of a quick regime change, insisting that Netanyahu was told the protests would take months to come to this result (if ever).
The spat is over the impression that Netanyahu’s people told Trump that “regime change” would come instantly.
“Regime change” was always an illusion. It was never realistic, the Israelis reported in January that the Iranian state was resilient and would not be destroyed by assassinations, protests or aerial bombing.
US intelligence said this too. This was all ignored.
Regime change is a marketing term for the monetisation of the destruction of your entire way of life. This has been going on for the last three or four decades and so you have become accustomed to it.
Regime change is the profit making industry of the mass production of dramatic decline in every dimension of life.
It has corrupted religion and politics completely.
Regime change has left us with nothing. It has produced populations enchanted by ignorance into the belief that progress was identical with a state of moral and financial bankruptcy.
Those who adjusted to this advertising campaign are incapable of recognising reality and therefore do not wish to understand what they have lost. This news is devastating because it is not fake.
Real Talk
Some people have congratulated media figures for daring to suggest the war might not be going well, for noticing there is no plan, and other remarks weeks behind the facts and now being mentioned because it carries more reward than risk to say so.
This is not real talk. As we all know now, we are ruled by a gang of crooks.
That is the real talk. It is the only talk worth talking. If people do not talk about this don’t listen to them. They have nothing worthwhile to say and will not help you restore our civilisation from the ruin into which it has been managed by the management and their helpmeets.
What comes next?
All the US and Israel can do now is cause more damage. I think they will do so if they are not stopped, and I think all the talk about peace talks has no basis in reality as the Iranians have not been involved for obvious reasons.
The issue here is not Iran, anyway, and it never has been.
No one is restraining Netanyahu. It is possible he can be stopped by the Israelis themselves, but seemingly no one else so far. He seems indifferent even to Russian warnings over his attempt to create a nuclear disaster.
On March 25th video was released of Texas Congressman Joaquin Castro questioning Thomas DiNanno for the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
DiNanno is the US State Department Under Secretary for Arms Control and International security. He was asked about Israel’s nuclear weapons. He refused to comment.
He was asked to answer as the world faces a nuclear catastrophe. He would not do so.
The US Congress cannot get an answer about Israel, its intentions and its capability from its own chief in the field.
The question is the danger of a nuclear disaster.
Here is a letter of resignation of Mohammed Safa, Palestinian diplomatic representative at the UN. He has routinely protested that voices such as his are silenced by pro-Israeli censorship of online media.
This is an incomplete information picture. On every aspect, there is so much more to say. Yet this final note shows you how serious this coming round of escalation could prove to be.
What to do?
Stock up on medicines, food and water etc
Be prepared for people to go mad
Stay indoors when they do
Come out and help them when they fall into despair if you can
Wrath of God?
Crows swarmed above Tel Aviv and left. Violent storms have raged through the Gulf. I think this is the wrath of God as it certainly looks like it and we can hardly blame Him given how things have been carrying on.
Check my homework
Here, for brevity, are some links to statements made by the Israelis in recent days - and some other points of view.
You will need to translate some of these. (Hebrew, Arabic)
Yair Lapid, Israeli opposition leader on IDF near collapse, domestic crisis
Israeli domestic financial crisis over war costs
Enraged mayors want war to end, say its lost, Israel being destroyed (kiryat shmona, margaliot)
Crisis around Netanyahu deepens today - illegal acts in office (Deputy atty general letter)
Israeli opposition leader challenges Netanyahu move to further control media
Coalition partner from Shas party attacks Netanyahu’s leadership on TV
Check American Conservative for the American conservative view
Reuters confirms it was a call from Netanyahu that launched the war
Qatar declares national emergency today in expectation of escalating attacks
Qatar distances itself from the war, says Iran is here to stay, we will get past this etc
See also my previous report on “The Economic Samson Option”.
Beware of believers in normalcy bias, rational calculation in this war, copesmiths and above all refuse to disintegrate along with the regime.
There is still hope. Time is running short. This weekend may prove decisive.
God help us all. And He will, if you seek Him.
If you have paid me for my work, thank you. I am publishing these posts without a paywall as I hope to provide a less deceptive information picture in a time of increasing confusion.
I hope to write about beauty and culture and restoration and the politics of the future soon. More on that when we get through this.
Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure have commenced. Steel plants, yellowcake nuclear facility. So much for the “pause” till Monday promised by Trump.
Frank, you had earlier written that there would be no war with Iran.
Is Trump an easily manipulated fool, or simply being blackmailed by the Israelis? I put zero credence to anyone claiming he did this in America's interest.
A huge number of Americans are hostile towards this adventure. Mass casualties from a ground war would sour even more. I fear that Trump will be persuaded to use tactical nukes to try and end this.