I think this kind of analysis is helpful to provide some clarity in an otherwise murky information battlefield. Most have no grasp of what is going on at any level.
I have to say the prospect of hundreds of millions coming to Europe is a sobering thought. One that ought to focus minds.
You would hope we would waken up long before that. Our current malaise is partly us clinging to a universalist mindset no one else embraces. That would surely go.
Oh there is hope. It seemed like there wasn’t but there is, and that is due to the long overdue recognition of reality. I think in time this will change everything
As with a bad movie, we know how it all ends, more or less, so I agree that there is reason for positivity. As an American, hunkering down in the middle of nowhere and trying to live a simple and well-oriented life, I get only enough news to make it clear that I have no real idea what is going on because I hear disparate versions of the story. I delight in how you can take the bleakest facts of the global situation, and deliver an uncompromising Catholic take that is full of compassion, seriousness, and encouragement. I always feel better (and more fervently Catholic) after absorbing your content. I will pray for your endurance and success, sir. God bless.
"This would include currency collapse, food and fuel shortages in the West, mass migration on a scale hitherto unseen and a permanent and sharp downward revision of living standards for those alive today."
Mass migration on a scale hitherto unseen? As if we haven't already seen enough.
Barbara Lerner Spectre is a Jewish activist who has become infamous for letting the cat out of the bag about the Jewish involvement in the "multicultural pivot" Europe has taken over the last couple of decades.
You can listen to what she had to say in the interview linked below, specifically from 0:39-1:15:
She apparently tried to get her revelation scrubbed from the internet, but it has been circulated endlessly by those of us who are against replacement level mass migration to the West.
The key thing to keep in mind is that the Jews want every Western country to be "multicultural" because that helps them to blend into our societies - but when it comes to Israel, they consistently defend their right to an exclusively Jewish state.
Not all the Jews, I'd say. But the Israelis, yes! "Ordo ab Chaos" and all that.
I come from an european jewish family and I'm on those guys who don't give a shit about the Holocaust and just want to live and let live.
Unfortunately, although most Jews in the world (outside of Israel that is) think not much different from me, they're too coward to speak up and take action.
It really is not much different from the shit that happened during the "George Floyd Riots". I'm absolutely sure most black folks were against all the black-on-white violence, the destructions and all the "oppression" bullshit. But "herd mentality" is a universal human trait unfortunately. And most human tribes tend to go with the flow in order not risk getting attacked by their own tribe.
All of this does not excuse Israel and its shenanigans, though. I admit I once even considered applying for Aliyah myself. But I first went to Israel to check the mood of the place.
And I soon discovered that the "land of my ancestors" was filled with LOTS of retards and not very nice people. So I dropped the idea.
I'm a Human Being, first and foremost.
Then a citizen of my country.
And only then a Jew (although my personal faith in God is always above everything else it may never serve as an excuse to mistreat my fellow men).
Sorry for the long comment. It was just my 2 cents here.
I've become very cynical about Jews over the past few years, and I'm not very sympathetic anymore when I hear people say "not all Jews."
But I do appreciate your comment. If there were more Jews like you, the world would be a much different place.
I also totally relate to putting personal faith in God being above everything else. That should be exactly what prevents any of us from hurting anyone else, and never license to mistreat others.
The problem is the prohibition of basic and changeless reality and being. In this case, tribes and their customs differ in important ways. This is a heresy to the cult of equality. We have been made blind to the fact we are not identical and that our moral and religious beliefs are not the same equation expressed with different factors. These formulae produce different products. The recognition and where possible reconciliation of difference is the basis for a sane ordering of human affairs.
Making these facts taboo is a making the truth a crime, which permissions barbarism and in turn universal vengeance (which is hell on earth).
Can perfectly understand. There aren't many jews in the world (maybe only 16 million worldwide). But although being very few they tend to do a lot of damage.
Nepotism also plays a lot. From my own experience a Christian or a Muslim will always try to get the best person available for a job, regardless of their religion (or lack of). A Jew will almost inevitably find another Jew for the job, regardless of whether he's good or just a complete moron.
Most people also tend t overlook that there's a lot of difference between Jewish groups and ethnicities. When people think of a "Jew" they almost always see the Ashkenazi american or Israeli as an example of what a Jew looks and thinks like. I can guarantee that an Iranian Jew will think and act very different from an american or Israeli one (I'm an Iberian Sephardi).
I suppose Christianity is a bit like this in some way. You have Catholics and Orthodox who share similar rites. Yet Orthodox tend to look at Catholics with some suspicion. And then you have the Protestant, who (in my perspective) seem to be the ones who most assume themselves to be the "real, true Christians" and tend to look at the older christian churches as "idolaters" and fanatics.
And then you have the Evangelicals (oh, boy!). I mean no disrespect but one of my uncles even entered the Catholic Church and became a priest. He used to participate in a lot of inter-faith meetings and he'd tell me that european Evangelicals were - by far - the dumbest and most fanatical group in the christian faiths. Very hard to interact and debate with, because of their stubborness and lack of self-awareness.
I suppose the American Evangelicals are the worst possible. They somehow have some weird fetish with the Jews and the American and Israeli jews take advantage of the situation and make them their "Useful Idiots".
Thus one of the reasons we're seeing all the current mess in the White House.
Thank you Marcia. I’m glad it’s useful to you. It’s what I do I suppose but I’m not always certain it is what people want to read. Sorry there was such a lot of it!
This is exactly what we need to hear to realize the TRUTH. Thanks for having the courage to speak it. You remind me of Michael Yon...the best compliment I can give you. He is one of the very few voices who knows what is happening to the world. And, now, I discover you do, as well. Your insight is remarkable. Bravo to you. And you know how to write. I continue to bring up geoengineering and weather warfare which few address....a mystery to me. This is a huge part of the coming famine, too. Thank you most sincerely for your efforts. Your style of writing is most appealing.
Another great article by Wright on the ideas and concepts driving the world at present - "small minds discuss people, average minds discuss events, great minds discuss ideas". I particularly liked the Artemis reference; in Trump's case Artemis would be a 13 year old girl.
Yes Trump is a concupiscent man, which is part of his makeup, and you’re quite right to say so I’m afraid. I do try my best to make sense of the mess, as it can be read and understood and must be if we are to do better.
Your cosmological beliefs are at odds with the Bible, however, which clearly states in Genesis that Earth was brought forth on day three and the sun. moon and stars on day four. After the Earth, and all on the same day.
Not at all. If you check the archive you’ll see a fair bit on my beliefs, which are those of the pre-revolutionary Catholic Church. I don’t know where you get this from if you’re addressing me, if you’re not I apologise - it’s hard to trace the thread of these comments on this app.
it was your ‘flat earth’ quip in a photo credit…while that is indeed a psyop and provable nonsense, nevertheless the Bible tells us that the sun, moon and stars are close to Earth, quite small and there is no vast outer space/universe out there.
Biblical cosmology is how i came to find the truth of Christ. Sun, moon and stars were all created on day four, all to give light on the Earth (and for signs, seasons, days and years).
The perfectly wise God who created everything and told us how He did it would not create huge lights and put them very far away from what He wanted to light up. He is not a woke engineer…
lol - it was still worth my while missing it completely in case there are Bible-believers who still don't accept what it says on page one of God's word.
It's a great question, but to answer it we probably have to go back and ask the question of what light is, and why He called it the day and its lack 'night'. Was it just poetry and emphasis?
For it is quite clear that in verses 14-15, the sun, moon and stars were to give light on the Earth and for and days and seasons. The sun marks out the days, though even in the middle of the desert on a new moon the nights are not pitch black.
Also, in 1 cor 15, paul tells us there is one glory of the moon and a different glory of the sun and different again are the stars.
When it comes to scripture, i have found that it is always the case that God is right, and we haven't come to understand or see it yet.
Considering that Abraham made a serious effort to convince God not to destroy the city of Sodom (thus trying to prevent a genocide) I wonder if the Israelis really deserve to label themselves "Children of Abraham" nowadays.
Interesting read as always. It strikes me that the convergence of events we are witnessing is nothing short of biblical. Standing by then for the antichrist to appear, as he needs total chaos in order to appear as a saviour, and we are almost there.
Neoliberalism. Named after the late 20th century economic theory that the rich should exercise total control over all aspects of society, and lie about it.
When the Neoliberals conquered the Earth, it wasn’t in face-to-face military battles like the ancient Romans or British used. Instead, the Neoliberals won by destabilizing and corrupting all competing power structures. Conquest is expensive. Tearing down is easy. To invade and occupy a nation-state would require planning, resources, and intelligence. To disrupt it? That only requires the technological high ground and a total lack of scruples. Destroy the power stations and water pumps. Sabotage their data networks, use your vast financial wealth to bribe political parties to betray their nation, block them from the international financial system, ensure that the mainstream media 24/7 slander and belittle and ignore the patriots.
The primary strength of the Neoliberals was their total lack of shame. You could catch them in lies, or contradictions, they could screw up totally, or rob you blind, and they wouldn’t care. They would just go on saying whatever they wanted to say and doing whatever they wanted to do. Neoliberalism is the application of power without moral restraint. You cannot debate them, you cannot reason with them. You can suck up to them and hope to be rewarded. You can do nothing and they will crush you into abject slavery. Oppose them in the slightest way, and they will destroy you by any means possible. Appeals to conscience are as useful as fighting cancer by asking for sympathy. Ultimately, the only winning strategy for dealing with Neoliberalism is to kill it
"You can summarise Trump as the closing-down salesman of the 20th century."
Prescient. Great insight.
But Bibi isn't in charge. I think he's a useful idiot. In the sense Power doesn't expose itself and so it may bestow upon him the force, but it can just as easily take it away. It's just using him as a herald, a battering ram.
I've started to think there might be something to the "prophecy" of Israel being a transient entity. The Orthodox give it a lifespan of 75-80 yrs, which from 1948 places us at 78 today. Let's see what happens.
I don't think things can get "less bad". Take the 25% inflation jump, or devaluation, of the last few years. The stock ticker appears 25% higher, but that just means it's flat. But headline numbers at face value, it's euphoric, until saner heads prevail on the narrative. We can't go back, but more of the same means ever more extreme pain for the plebians. In one breath they can't say, the last 80 years was a lie, but trust us, now we're gonna do you good and right. Just as Trump needs the next climax to be more than the previous to hide the delusion, so too does the next ticket need to be an ever more orgasmic experience to be sold. We're junkies. Yesterday's dose won't be enough for tomorrow.
This war will end with nukes. I said this the day it started. Sometimes it seems like a deal has been clenched, but then there's tomorrow and the day after. The price hikes and shortages are building in the background. If these come to the fore, then I see uncle Clif's predictions of the reverse migrant exodus in Europe to be a real possibility. No goods or no money means no benefits, and scapegoating, reverting to default: genetics and credo. Post 91 world goes and we all become tribal.
The left and the right are phonies. Ugly reality will cut them down to size. Reads better as "yesterday was forever until today was no more."
Interesting comment. I would be interested to hear more on this reversal of immigration. I too have wondered what will happen when real hardship hits Western nations. We are all three square meals away from at least some savagery and we have so far been spared the worst of it. The lights are still on and there is food in supermarkets.
But many have predicted the rosy view of multiculturalism is an artefact of wealth and distance; its effects are not immediately felt by those who support it. What happens when that changes? How tribal will we become?
The three meals is an anecdote and doesn't translate neatly in the civil war/strife/revolution literature, but the observation (empty stomachs -> revolution) holds true.
I first heard about the reverse migration hypothesis on Clif High's audio a couple of years ago. He's woo and occasionally has been proven right in reading the tea leaves. He resurrected it a few weeks ago and says this summer it starts, pointing to the Irish and Swedes (perhaps because these cultures' ancestors tribal violence was brutal).
I don't think things will follow a neat and precise logic/plan. What I think will happen in reality is better inspired by nature. As all humans are governed by our minds -> ideas -> narratives -> behavior. So for instance, we're not going from 0 to 100 overnight, be it for political revolution, savage interpersonal violence, tribalism, collapse of fiat money systems, etc. As inspiration I think nature gives us great examples of how new behaviors get assimilated into culture. There's a great documentary on a subset of baboons in Africa that started hunting flamingos a couple of decades ago (foraging outside their territory: behavior previously observed only with chimpanzees who do war party hunts). It started with 1 pack/group and as the years progressed suddenly it was 2-3 packs, and the researchers hypothesis was that young males leaving the original pack - which grew in size because of its success - transmitted the behavior. I think this is an keen insight on how novel behavior emerges and spreads. Applied to humans, what I think is reasonable, is there will be episodes of violence along racial and religious fault lines, and a lot of people who wouldn't think of themselves as violent or racist, will acquire consciousness about what actions are practicable, breaking mental taboos. It won't be a 0 - 100 overnight everywhere. It'll be a mosaic of 5s and 80s with the "average" growing higher over time. I think we're talking about a 5-10 year growing crescendo. The worst part will be the gradual breakdown of traditional law & order, with a return to vigilantism and community self policing. The "State" won't sit idle, it will become more draconian trying to keep a grip, inadvertently contributing to creating fissures, which will feed back into antagonizing population groups.
I'm convinced we're going to see the emergence of new political movements and ideologies not around today, because today we have a dearth of ideas.
Likewise the whole idea that suddenly all the immigrants will leave together in some coordinated manner is unrealistic. In the UK there are (I'm friends with) people with British nationality who've been there for 2-3 decades, whose children are British. They're no longer culturally compatible with their native countries. It's the same with Muslims: a minority are "Islamists", the majority is always silent and goes along with "thought leaders". Some immigrants who consider themselves local will stand their ground, more recent arrivals are more likely to leave, some communities are multicultural, others not so much. I think it'll be a mosaic of different situations and communities behaving differently.
Like your comment hints at, like the articles by Frank discuss, and like I and many others believe, our predicament across the West is compounded by many unsustainable narratives all coming together to an ever constricted funnel. And when things are under pressure unexpected breakage occurs. I think the work of Taleb on long tails, black swans and probabilities is worth keeping in mind.
The last 2-3 decades of socio-econimic changes across the West have upended our cultures. Politics has however stayed the same. So I think it's more likely we'll see old forms of violence resurrected, copied and disseminated in an uncoordinated way. There's nothing stopping an avalanche effect, but realistically we're too fat and lazy for it to happen all at once.
Great answer, thanks. I think the situation in the UK is complex but ultimately unstable. I think we will see various forms of collapse sooner rather than later. Also some cultural groups are very dependent on government help and that will ultimately shrink. So that may accelerate things. I already see attitudes hardening.
I think you are correct and a new politics will emerge. Today's polite fights about leadership contests and who said what, or some minor scandal, are making the political class and the media look increasingly out of touch. They seem oblivious to the real world where people lose their jobs, their kids are threatened, and life is harsh.
Here in Italy I've heard plenty of comments whose underpinnings are racist ideas, but if you were to tell those expressing certain opinions that what they're saying is racist, which I sometimes have, people recoil because it's deeply ingrained to react that "racism = bad" in 'polite society'. So it's clear that under the surface the currents are changing, but it's not yet out in the open.
Last week a story doing the rounds was about an unfortunate death of an Italian dad in front of his 11 year old son after banging his head on the ground/heart attack following a punch/push. The man had intervened to stop 3-4 teens (2 minors) throwing rocks at a storefront. Newspapers obviously labelled the teens as Italians, but then it emerged from the names they're originally Romanians, maybe Rom. Part of the problem here, beyond this episode, is the speed with which altercations escalate into violence. Italy is famous for people, especially drivers, telling each other to fk off (vaffanculo!), but physical fights and brawls were rare. But over the last 5-10 years, especially with social media glorifying extreme behavior, the Italian press is full of the problem of "baby gangs". And it's clear this isn't a homegrown native to Italy phenomena.
So at some point I also expect cause/effect to emerge and it'll get ugly quickly.
Similar here. People resist overt racist comments, but things are said behind closed doors. Ethnic and cultural differences can't be hidden either. The people promoting open borders are beginning to look crazy.
More and more sexual assaults and violent fights happening in the UK too. It is only going to get worse. The scale of immigration here is unbelievable.
I think this kind of analysis is helpful to provide some clarity in an otherwise murky information battlefield. Most have no grasp of what is going on at any level.
I have to say the prospect of hundreds of millions coming to Europe is a sobering thought. One that ought to focus minds.
Yes, the novel “The Camp of Saints” might become reality.
You would hope we would waken up long before that. Our current malaise is partly us clinging to a universalist mindset no one else embraces. That would surely go.
I love your work, Frank! Another awesome insight. Thank you 🙏
Your posts provide some optimism and clarity in a world that feels increasingly like a bad movie. Thank you.
Oh there is hope. It seemed like there wasn’t but there is, and that is due to the long overdue recognition of reality. I think in time this will change everything
As with a bad movie, we know how it all ends, more or less, so I agree that there is reason for positivity. As an American, hunkering down in the middle of nowhere and trying to live a simple and well-oriented life, I get only enough news to make it clear that I have no real idea what is going on because I hear disparate versions of the story. I delight in how you can take the bleakest facts of the global situation, and deliver an uncompromising Catholic take that is full of compassion, seriousness, and encouragement. I always feel better (and more fervently Catholic) after absorbing your content. I will pray for your endurance and success, sir. God bless.
Amen !
"This would include currency collapse, food and fuel shortages in the West, mass migration on a scale hitherto unseen and a permanent and sharp downward revision of living standards for those alive today."
Mass migration on a scale hitherto unseen? As if we haven't already seen enough.
I'm having BarbaraLernerSpectre redux.
??
Barbara Lerner Spectre is a Jewish activist who has become infamous for letting the cat out of the bag about the Jewish involvement in the "multicultural pivot" Europe has taken over the last couple of decades.
You can listen to what she had to say in the interview linked below, specifically from 0:39-1:15:
https://archive.org/details/youtube-apXab2wHdzY
She apparently tried to get her revelation scrubbed from the internet, but it has been circulated endlessly by those of us who are against replacement level mass migration to the West.
The key thing to keep in mind is that the Jews want every Western country to be "multicultural" because that helps them to blend into our societies - but when it comes to Israel, they consistently defend their right to an exclusively Jewish state.
Every single time !
Not all the Jews, I'd say. But the Israelis, yes! "Ordo ab Chaos" and all that.
I come from an european jewish family and I'm on those guys who don't give a shit about the Holocaust and just want to live and let live.
Unfortunately, although most Jews in the world (outside of Israel that is) think not much different from me, they're too coward to speak up and take action.
It really is not much different from the shit that happened during the "George Floyd Riots". I'm absolutely sure most black folks were against all the black-on-white violence, the destructions and all the "oppression" bullshit. But "herd mentality" is a universal human trait unfortunately. And most human tribes tend to go with the flow in order not risk getting attacked by their own tribe.
All of this does not excuse Israel and its shenanigans, though. I admit I once even considered applying for Aliyah myself. But I first went to Israel to check the mood of the place.
And I soon discovered that the "land of my ancestors" was filled with LOTS of retards and not very nice people. So I dropped the idea.
I'm a Human Being, first and foremost.
Then a citizen of my country.
And only then a Jew (although my personal faith in God is always above everything else it may never serve as an excuse to mistreat my fellow men).
Sorry for the long comment. It was just my 2 cents here.
I've become very cynical about Jews over the past few years, and I'm not very sympathetic anymore when I hear people say "not all Jews."
But I do appreciate your comment. If there were more Jews like you, the world would be a much different place.
I also totally relate to putting personal faith in God being above everything else. That should be exactly what prevents any of us from hurting anyone else, and never license to mistreat others.
The problem is the prohibition of basic and changeless reality and being. In this case, tribes and their customs differ in important ways. This is a heresy to the cult of equality. We have been made blind to the fact we are not identical and that our moral and religious beliefs are not the same equation expressed with different factors. These formulae produce different products. The recognition and where possible reconciliation of difference is the basis for a sane ordering of human affairs.
Making these facts taboo is a making the truth a crime, which permissions barbarism and in turn universal vengeance (which is hell on earth).
Can perfectly understand. There aren't many jews in the world (maybe only 16 million worldwide). But although being very few they tend to do a lot of damage.
Nepotism also plays a lot. From my own experience a Christian or a Muslim will always try to get the best person available for a job, regardless of their religion (or lack of). A Jew will almost inevitably find another Jew for the job, regardless of whether he's good or just a complete moron.
Most people also tend t overlook that there's a lot of difference between Jewish groups and ethnicities. When people think of a "Jew" they almost always see the Ashkenazi american or Israeli as an example of what a Jew looks and thinks like. I can guarantee that an Iranian Jew will think and act very different from an american or Israeli one (I'm an Iberian Sephardi).
I suppose Christianity is a bit like this in some way. You have Catholics and Orthodox who share similar rites. Yet Orthodox tend to look at Catholics with some suspicion. And then you have the Protestant, who (in my perspective) seem to be the ones who most assume themselves to be the "real, true Christians" and tend to look at the older christian churches as "idolaters" and fanatics.
And then you have the Evangelicals (oh, boy!). I mean no disrespect but one of my uncles even entered the Catholic Church and became a priest. He used to participate in a lot of inter-faith meetings and he'd tell me that european Evangelicals were - by far - the dumbest and most fanatical group in the christian faiths. Very hard to interact and debate with, because of their stubborness and lack of self-awareness.
I suppose the American Evangelicals are the worst possible. They somehow have some weird fetish with the Jews and the American and Israeli jews take advantage of the situation and make them their "Useful Idiots".
Thus one of the reasons we're seeing all the current mess in the White House.
Anyway, thanks for your input, Cordelia
God bless you
God bless you, too. We'd all be better off if we could have more conversations like this.
Your analysis, conclusions, and writing are excellent. Thank you.
Thank you Marcia. I’m glad it’s useful to you. It’s what I do I suppose but I’m not always certain it is what people want to read. Sorry there was such a lot of it!
This is exactly what we need to hear to realize the TRUTH. Thanks for having the courage to speak it. You remind me of Michael Yon...the best compliment I can give you. He is one of the very few voices who knows what is happening to the world. And, now, I discover you do, as well. Your insight is remarkable. Bravo to you. And you know how to write. I continue to bring up geoengineering and weather warfare which few address....a mystery to me. This is a huge part of the coming famine, too. Thank you most sincerely for your efforts. Your style of writing is most appealing.
Dane Wigington's movie, THE DIMMING, via Geoengineeringwatch.org
Another great article by Wright on the ideas and concepts driving the world at present - "small minds discuss people, average minds discuss events, great minds discuss ideas". I particularly liked the Artemis reference; in Trump's case Artemis would be a 13 year old girl.
Yes Trump is a concupiscent man, which is part of his makeup, and you’re quite right to say so I’m afraid. I do try my best to make sense of the mess, as it can be read and understood and must be if we are to do better.
Excellent insights!
Thank you Katherine. Glad I could help!
We could use all the help we can get! You're welcome
Excellent geopolitical analysis brother.
Your cosmological beliefs are at odds with the Bible, however, which clearly states in Genesis that Earth was brought forth on day three and the sun. moon and stars on day four. After the Earth, and all on the same day.
Or is man's word more accurate than God's? ;-)
Not at all. If you check the archive you’ll see a fair bit on my beliefs, which are those of the pre-revolutionary Catholic Church. I don’t know where you get this from if you’re addressing me, if you’re not I apologise - it’s hard to trace the thread of these comments on this app.
it was your ‘flat earth’ quip in a photo credit…while that is indeed a psyop and provable nonsense, nevertheless the Bible tells us that the sun, moon and stars are close to Earth, quite small and there is no vast outer space/universe out there.
Biblical cosmology is how i came to find the truth of Christ. Sun, moon and stars were all created on day four, all to give light on the Earth (and for signs, seasons, days and years).
The perfectly wise God who created everything and told us how He did it would not create huge lights and put them very far away from what He wanted to light up. He is not a woke engineer…
Peace in Christ :-)
It was a joke. I do apologise for attempting humour. Fail again, fail better.
lol - it was still worth my while missing it completely in case there are Bible-believers who still don't accept what it says on page one of God's word.
peace :-)
Nice exchange…I have a question… God created day and night prior to the sun and moon…what do you think this implies?
It's a great question, but to answer it we probably have to go back and ask the question of what light is, and why He called it the day and its lack 'night'. Was it just poetry and emphasis?
For it is quite clear that in verses 14-15, the sun, moon and stars were to give light on the Earth and for and days and seasons. The sun marks out the days, though even in the middle of the desert on a new moon the nights are not pitch black.
Also, in 1 cor 15, paul tells us there is one glory of the moon and a different glory of the sun and different again are the stars.
When it comes to scripture, i have found that it is always the case that God is right, and we haven't come to understand or see it yet.
Peace.
Considering that Abraham made a serious effort to convince God not to destroy the city of Sodom (thus trying to prevent a genocide) I wonder if the Israelis really deserve to label themselves "Children of Abraham" nowadays.
That’s a point I couldn’t make because it was beyond me. Thank you Karnak. I see that now.
Amen …..again.
"the Israelis do not share 'our values'” ✔️
"the recognition of what the Israelis are like -- that they are unlike us in significant ways" ✔️
"The 'Right' sells the wars as the muscular defence of civilisation" ✔️
To global leaders, diplomats, and strategic decision-makers:
The Middle East crisis spanning Gaza, Lebanon, and U.S.–Iran tensions has entered a new phase.
Ceasefires are being negotiated. Backchannels are active. Pakistan is mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran.
And yet, conflict continues on the ground.
The Contrarian Insight
The issue is no longer the absence of diplomacy.
It is the mismatch between the speed of diplomacy and the speed of conflict.
Modern conflict operates in real time:
decentralized actors
rapid escalation cycles
continuous tactical adjustments
Diplomacy, however, remains:
sequential
state-centric
dependent on controlled channels
The Systemic Failure
The current system relies on:
indirect negotiations (e.g., via Pakistan)
temporary ceasefires
fragmented agreements across multiple fronts
This creates a structural gap:
decisions are negotiated slower than events unfold
As a result:
ceasefires are violated or bypassed
negotiations lag behind new realities
trust erodes before agreements take hold
The Shift in Thinking
Global leaders must move from:
Negotiation → Real-time conflict management systems
State-to-state diplomacy → Multi-actor coordination
Static agreements → Adaptive frameworks
Peace processes must evolve to match the speed and complexity of modern conflict.
The Uncomfortable Truth
A ceasefire that cannot hold under real-world conditions is not a step toward peace.
It is a temporary pause in an ongoing system of conflict.
A Realistic Path Forward
Stability requires:
faster, continuous diplomatic channels (not episodic talks)
integrated regional frameworks (not isolated negotiations)
alignment between military realities and political agreements
accountability mechanisms that function in real time
This is not about more diplomacy.
It is about faster, smarter, system-level diplomacy.
Interesting read as always. It strikes me that the convergence of events we are witnessing is nothing short of biblical. Standing by then for the antichrist to appear, as he needs total chaos in order to appear as a saviour, and we are almost there.
We shall see I suppose Mr Brophy. There’s certainly a fair bit of effort in that direction.
You are not wrong Frank.
Neoliberalism. Named after the late 20th century economic theory that the rich should exercise total control over all aspects of society, and lie about it.
When the Neoliberals conquered the Earth, it wasn’t in face-to-face military battles like the ancient Romans or British used. Instead, the Neoliberals won by destabilizing and corrupting all competing power structures. Conquest is expensive. Tearing down is easy. To invade and occupy a nation-state would require planning, resources, and intelligence. To disrupt it? That only requires the technological high ground and a total lack of scruples. Destroy the power stations and water pumps. Sabotage their data networks, use your vast financial wealth to bribe political parties to betray their nation, block them from the international financial system, ensure that the mainstream media 24/7 slander and belittle and ignore the patriots.
The primary strength of the Neoliberals was their total lack of shame. You could catch them in lies, or contradictions, they could screw up totally, or rob you blind, and they wouldn’t care. They would just go on saying whatever they wanted to say and doing whatever they wanted to do. Neoliberalism is the application of power without moral restraint. You cannot debate them, you cannot reason with them. You can suck up to them and hope to be rewarded. You can do nothing and they will crush you into abject slavery. Oppose them in the slightest way, and they will destroy you by any means possible. Appeals to conscience are as useful as fighting cancer by asking for sympathy. Ultimately, the only winning strategy for dealing with Neoliberalism is to kill it
Yes it’s a terrible business, but a business it was and remains. I think it is going out of business too, which is something to be cheerful about!
"You can summarise Trump as the closing-down salesman of the 20th century."
Prescient. Great insight.
But Bibi isn't in charge. I think he's a useful idiot. In the sense Power doesn't expose itself and so it may bestow upon him the force, but it can just as easily take it away. It's just using him as a herald, a battering ram.
I've started to think there might be something to the "prophecy" of Israel being a transient entity. The Orthodox give it a lifespan of 75-80 yrs, which from 1948 places us at 78 today. Let's see what happens.
I don't think things can get "less bad". Take the 25% inflation jump, or devaluation, of the last few years. The stock ticker appears 25% higher, but that just means it's flat. But headline numbers at face value, it's euphoric, until saner heads prevail on the narrative. We can't go back, but more of the same means ever more extreme pain for the plebians. In one breath they can't say, the last 80 years was a lie, but trust us, now we're gonna do you good and right. Just as Trump needs the next climax to be more than the previous to hide the delusion, so too does the next ticket need to be an ever more orgasmic experience to be sold. We're junkies. Yesterday's dose won't be enough for tomorrow.
This war will end with nukes. I said this the day it started. Sometimes it seems like a deal has been clenched, but then there's tomorrow and the day after. The price hikes and shortages are building in the background. If these come to the fore, then I see uncle Clif's predictions of the reverse migrant exodus in Europe to be a real possibility. No goods or no money means no benefits, and scapegoating, reverting to default: genetics and credo. Post 91 world goes and we all become tribal.
The left and the right are phonies. Ugly reality will cut them down to size. Reads better as "yesterday was forever until today was no more."
Interesting comment. I would be interested to hear more on this reversal of immigration. I too have wondered what will happen when real hardship hits Western nations. We are all three square meals away from at least some savagery and we have so far been spared the worst of it. The lights are still on and there is food in supermarkets.
But many have predicted the rosy view of multiculturalism is an artefact of wealth and distance; its effects are not immediately felt by those who support it. What happens when that changes? How tribal will we become?
The three meals is an anecdote and doesn't translate neatly in the civil war/strife/revolution literature, but the observation (empty stomachs -> revolution) holds true.
I first heard about the reverse migration hypothesis on Clif High's audio a couple of years ago. He's woo and occasionally has been proven right in reading the tea leaves. He resurrected it a few weeks ago and says this summer it starts, pointing to the Irish and Swedes (perhaps because these cultures' ancestors tribal violence was brutal).
I don't think things will follow a neat and precise logic/plan. What I think will happen in reality is better inspired by nature. As all humans are governed by our minds -> ideas -> narratives -> behavior. So for instance, we're not going from 0 to 100 overnight, be it for political revolution, savage interpersonal violence, tribalism, collapse of fiat money systems, etc. As inspiration I think nature gives us great examples of how new behaviors get assimilated into culture. There's a great documentary on a subset of baboons in Africa that started hunting flamingos a couple of decades ago (foraging outside their territory: behavior previously observed only with chimpanzees who do war party hunts). It started with 1 pack/group and as the years progressed suddenly it was 2-3 packs, and the researchers hypothesis was that young males leaving the original pack - which grew in size because of its success - transmitted the behavior. I think this is an keen insight on how novel behavior emerges and spreads. Applied to humans, what I think is reasonable, is there will be episodes of violence along racial and religious fault lines, and a lot of people who wouldn't think of themselves as violent or racist, will acquire consciousness about what actions are practicable, breaking mental taboos. It won't be a 0 - 100 overnight everywhere. It'll be a mosaic of 5s and 80s with the "average" growing higher over time. I think we're talking about a 5-10 year growing crescendo. The worst part will be the gradual breakdown of traditional law & order, with a return to vigilantism and community self policing. The "State" won't sit idle, it will become more draconian trying to keep a grip, inadvertently contributing to creating fissures, which will feed back into antagonizing population groups.
I'm convinced we're going to see the emergence of new political movements and ideologies not around today, because today we have a dearth of ideas.
Likewise the whole idea that suddenly all the immigrants will leave together in some coordinated manner is unrealistic. In the UK there are (I'm friends with) people with British nationality who've been there for 2-3 decades, whose children are British. They're no longer culturally compatible with their native countries. It's the same with Muslims: a minority are "Islamists", the majority is always silent and goes along with "thought leaders". Some immigrants who consider themselves local will stand their ground, more recent arrivals are more likely to leave, some communities are multicultural, others not so much. I think it'll be a mosaic of different situations and communities behaving differently.
Like your comment hints at, like the articles by Frank discuss, and like I and many others believe, our predicament across the West is compounded by many unsustainable narratives all coming together to an ever constricted funnel. And when things are under pressure unexpected breakage occurs. I think the work of Taleb on long tails, black swans and probabilities is worth keeping in mind.
The last 2-3 decades of socio-econimic changes across the West have upended our cultures. Politics has however stayed the same. So I think it's more likely we'll see old forms of violence resurrected, copied and disseminated in an uncoordinated way. There's nothing stopping an avalanche effect, but realistically we're too fat and lazy for it to happen all at once.
Great answer, thanks. I think the situation in the UK is complex but ultimately unstable. I think we will see various forms of collapse sooner rather than later. Also some cultural groups are very dependent on government help and that will ultimately shrink. So that may accelerate things. I already see attitudes hardening.
I think you are correct and a new politics will emerge. Today's polite fights about leadership contests and who said what, or some minor scandal, are making the political class and the media look increasingly out of touch. They seem oblivious to the real world where people lose their jobs, their kids are threatened, and life is harsh.
Interesting times ahead.
I completely agree.
Here in Italy I've heard plenty of comments whose underpinnings are racist ideas, but if you were to tell those expressing certain opinions that what they're saying is racist, which I sometimes have, people recoil because it's deeply ingrained to react that "racism = bad" in 'polite society'. So it's clear that under the surface the currents are changing, but it's not yet out in the open.
Last week a story doing the rounds was about an unfortunate death of an Italian dad in front of his 11 year old son after banging his head on the ground/heart attack following a punch/push. The man had intervened to stop 3-4 teens (2 minors) throwing rocks at a storefront. Newspapers obviously labelled the teens as Italians, but then it emerged from the names they're originally Romanians, maybe Rom. Part of the problem here, beyond this episode, is the speed with which altercations escalate into violence. Italy is famous for people, especially drivers, telling each other to fk off (vaffanculo!), but physical fights and brawls were rare. But over the last 5-10 years, especially with social media glorifying extreme behavior, the Italian press is full of the problem of "baby gangs". And it's clear this isn't a homegrown native to Italy phenomena.
So at some point I also expect cause/effect to emerge and it'll get ugly quickly.
Similar here. People resist overt racist comments, but things are said behind closed doors. Ethnic and cultural differences can't be hidden either. The people promoting open borders are beginning to look crazy.
More and more sexual assaults and violent fights happening in the UK too. It is only going to get worse. The scale of immigration here is unbelievable.
I don't wish to be too critical, but this piece is heavy with emoting and very short on substance and analysis.